World is aging - Max India

 Last 6 months, I found myself every 3-4 days in hospital/clinic assisting the elders around me.  Clearly the world is aging.

and needs caring and empathy never before.

My bet is Max India in the space.

New Technology Business Wonder in making - Aurum PropTech

 Real estate = Perfect place ready for disruption.

Aurum PropTech - Right mix.

Results could be Wonders. This setup is to watch out for next coming decades.

Disclosure - gets in and out based on own conviction.

Business of up coming decades - Selan Explorations Technology

Since 2011, after reading the "The Third Curve" I was in search of that kind of set up.

Narrowed down to Vedanta but that is lead by one of most Greedy face of India so ruled out it. ONGC, NMDC were other options but did not fit the bill plus PSU culture is damn issue.

Finally came - Selan Explorations Technology with new team from  Blackbuck Energy Investments Limited,  owned largely by Oak Tree Capital, and they also have a controlling stake in Antelopus Energy Private Limited in India.

And my search for a purely natural energy security play ended. Taken exposure and intent to hold for next 10 years at least if things pens out as thought about.

Disclosure - I may sell anytime based on any negative developments or better opportunities if it comes and will not update here, so if you are taking any call, kindly do due diligence. This is just a my diary kind of blog.

Business DNA in oneliner Series - 1 - Praj Industries

Praj Industries - We spent 100 hours to understand Praj, talking to management, listening them on different forums webinar like industry, education, alumni meet and so on.

So before concluding the gist in oneliner, there is a story of deep thinking and hard work.

We will tell the story sometimes later.

Praj DNA - "A super powerful 10000 cc engine (Praj Matrix) fitted into ambassador car. ©"

Disclosure - Oneliner intent to understand DNA, not taking away any negative view about prop/brands/subjects mentioned in the statement. Like the sufi owl says - See the moon, do not catch the finger pointing to it. Before quoting the oneliner, kindly take the permission from us.

RE - The one of the oldest asset is awaiting it's Tesla moment and so the perfect sector for 100x

Real estate awaiting it's Tesla Moment: 

Pain Areas:

1. It's seller's market
2. Legacy construction technology
3. Time is luxury here - Approvals, Development and point above all takes time beyond patience
4. Transparency - Govt as devil - Weird registry process - Black money - Title and records
5. Millions novice nonsense non professionals brokers - Adding Minus Value

Every point invites here - Disruptors.

So the opportunity for stakeholders, 100x in the sector in next 10 years.

See 2 Mega Trends -

• Prop Tech - To address point 1, 4 and 5
• Construction technologies - to address 2, and to a extent 3 point above

Prop Technology:

• Aurum PropTech - Listed and very interesting
• Square yards / NoBrokers - Upcoming IPO
• IndiaAssetz - In Startup phase

Construction technologies:

• Modulex
• To be added

What else?

Softwares are eating the world

Softwares so far has made life so easy for Homo Sapiens. From Caves to Hunting to Agri to Fossil fuels /Coals/Natural resources driven - Industrial era to IT and now AI Era, we have evolved a lot so far tools of growth, ease of life and consumption (mindless?) is concerned. Probably time to talk on negatives impacts as well.

Softwares, automation and so the AI are getting dangerous day by day. Millions retail customer using them, losing values in small amount in many transaction, data privacy, wrong work-flows (can be called misbehave) for which is there is no accountability set. Amount being less, no one bother much but cumulative this turns into big amount as well, think about it.

I have so many experiences of software running firms like brokers, Insurance, banks and others, where misbehave/bugs in the system (or may be by design) leads to losses for retailers (Losses always consumer side) and mind you, their internal escalations never works. We can not expect them to design system which have odd in favour of their Consumers, so they behave like Casino.

I have reached up to IT heads, Retails head and sometimes CTO/CEO. They accept bugs/bad design/misbehave but who have ultimate responsibility of capital losses? They never have any clue on this, simply they are not incetived rightly (regulated) to be accountable. Most CEOs job is to show PROFITS, rest comes later or never.

Somehow in Banks, Insurance - regulators body works still satisfactory. One can visit bank, Ombudsman or IRDA, but Brokers, Services providers, Retailers - they have no Mai-Baap. SEBI, Consumer portals are just dumb listeners like talent managers in Corporates. Toothless animals.

Questions comes - Who certify their softwares, who does auditing of behaviour of softwares? What is mechanism to watch misbehave (bugs is small part of it) of machines/softwares?

Its big danger virtual world out there, and going to be dangerous more and more. Homo Sapiens who are least bother about their own accountabilities (Looks at climate danger which could lead to end of this Species, still there is no sincere efforts been put up cumulatively), developing another breed of Species as software/machines/AI which has no defined set of rules to set accountability or regulated, leave aside its brutal nature of ruthlessness.

It a wake up call. God save us all from us!

India - Who Are We - A painful tale of a Nation who is in search of itself.

Govt commentary and accepting that we are now 5% growth GDP is worry for everyone now, because we need 12% GDP to make 5T Economy in 6+ years. This will put lots of pressure on Govt to reforms. But India has its own issues of diversity, population and anti-national elements which wanted to destroy any chance to grow the nation. It is really disheartening to see that this nation's exFM Chidambaram destroyed best IT product this nation has ever developed called MCX exchange. Congress was cancer to nation, while Modi-Amit more busy cleaning up the house. It makes sense because when we go outside of house to do business we make it sure house in order. Its hard to believe a few facts which I got that even Govt was looked sold sometime in the past. You read NCERT syllabus prepared by leftist ideology talks utter nonsense. We are brainwashing our kids? Its shame. I feel INDIANs are most irresponsible citizen. They are most hippocratic. They accept situation as destiny. New generation looks busy in selfies, social media and weird hair style. Still I feel bright spots will emerge and Gen Y will lead it. They are new hippies. I have a lot to talk but some other day. Probably will write a paper.

We are a Nation who lost its PRIDE centuries ago. We are manipulated to think ALL IS WELL, Accept shitting Infra as realities, Accept no digital infra as normal signal issues, Accept highly inflation real estate as destiny, Accept 12-15% cost of capital as normal, Accept third class education with super class price as normal, Accept that we are less civilized than west in culture, Our most lands are all in mess in title issues, Our courts are full of cases and justice is most corrupt system, Accept traffic as a way of life, and live third class life in India. We have sold media, We are third class in quality of issues which discuss among ourselves, We are highly biased to self interest, We hardly think beyond ourselves, Our Public sector banks are scam of political parties. We are more concerns and can easily divided by our caste, religion. We are taught to be shameful on our culture, identity.

I have one single point way to judge media. Tell me, After watching it, Would you feel PRIDE as Nation? Nope! We have 100 good news and 10 bad news, but its all selective journalism. 

It's not our media. Yes, show realities, but whose hunger will go away from watching issues related Mumbai-Delhi as these journalist stay there? I hardly see anyone covering north east , remotest places of India where real problems cripping in?

We still grown as Nation. Not because of some Govt , but despite them.

I feel We must file a case against all nations who looted us. Let those so called developed & highly civilized nations realized - how badly they looted us? How they destroyed our identity, wisdom and education in planned manner. They destroyed our culture so society so family so we can be divided and ruled.

People change, Govt change which brings change. Its cycle. So we need to change. Things will be difficult in the future and we need to be prepared. We desperately needs some great visionary and we need to stand with him/her. We believe in Avatar, awaiting Kalki to sort out our issue. As we united behind someone, let's figure out who that can be from society today.

I feel we are blessed with one such fellow is Dr Subramanian Swami. He has divide blessing for sure, if you disagree, attend his session you will feel vibes. He is crusader against corruption, corrupts, hypocrisy, mediocracy, pseudo secularism, injustice, and the scam of feeling shame on our culture, identity and pride. He has a great role to play in the future, and if given and we support, We will be entering into golden era. My suggestion: talk about it around, stand above your normal habit of self interest, because if we will not, We will suffer huge. and next generation more, which we hardly think about.

Nation do not get developed by just GDP. Its needs to identify itself.

It needs to ask the basic question: Who are we! So the long journey can begin! 

Journey to regaining our old glory!

"Sone ki chidiya: the golden bird of the world!".

Jai Hind!

Be a Student

Don't be Teacher in Markets & Life. Always be a Student.

Students learn, Teachers are taught!

Note: Don't copy any quotes without permission from this website. 

Financial statements and stakeholders

Balance sheet is for Promoters.
P&L Statement is for Traders.
Cash flow statement is for Investors.

Decoding Making of New India: The Bharat

Economy runs on few things about which I will try to put my comments, its been a last 2 years thinking and much more pain.


WIP

Dogma of CXO - Search for meaning of Sustainability in era of dying Growth!

After brainwashing us to be reckless growth chaser on COST of anything & everything, like a boomerang, or as we call Karma in Indian philosophy, the clueless caste of CXO are in Catch-22 situation on Dogma of that growth! 

Either execute your dogma or quit, and in survival instinct, they would reach to every (yes, every) options suggested by their consultant (followers who are ready to replace them as inherent self motives) & will through axes on their roots. Ultimately, the Truth will prevail, but its course of decades, while we are designed to be generation of instant noodles & gratification. 

Do wait, a new theory going to be thrown for the mass Consumption, until we realize and adopt Human dimension of existence & ecology to peace, harmony & Life full of opportunities to solve our Basic Problems.

Life is a full circle but the diameter is so long that We start thinking we are on joyful ride of straight growth line. While we as humanity evolve more & sustain when we travel respecting the circle while lifting the plane itself. Otherwise circle will bring us to same point on same plane. Wiser will be to be on higher planes and so higher state of the point.

The Enablers

I wanna restrict myself to realities. Do not want to tell future. Simply because until you transcend time, its lie to tell future.

But Want to tell today.

All the companies selling dreams will die in next 10 years. All the companies fulfilling dreams of people will grow exponentially.

I will call them "The Enablers"!

And those selling Dream must die. That is where the Neo Human can be born. Authentic human being, Humanaire.

Companies which enable people, provide platform to leverage will flourish.

Few social media companies are glimpse. But then they themselves started selling Dreams.

Tesla is Game Changer. Elon Musk is the man to watch out for.

IT companies which are developing software by charging clients will die.

Technology companies which are on Open Source will lead and disrupt.

Lets see.

The 100 PE Elite Club: Companies with Greatness-Factor™

Well, Thoughts started flowing after reading a discussion about a amazing retail chain business which listed recently.

Why a company gets 100 PE?

Let me reserve copy rights of 100PEEliteClub™, PEPie™ & Greatness-Factor™ first.

Greatness-Factor™ might be well written and researched. Will talk later.

Why a company gets 100 PE? It has to have Greatness-Factor™ first.

Can we think in this way:

A Segment gets 100 PE based on opportunity size, tailwinds and sustainability in foreseeable future.

A pioneer, first mover, trend setter and leader is the segment will get entire pie of 100 PE.

This will attract competition. A copycat replicates the model or try to.

So, Now 2 such business will divide PEPie™, and will trade on 50PE.

This will attract more competition.

So, Now 4 such quality business will divide PEPie™, and will trade on 25PE.

This will attract more competition. and then, Segment equity will dilute, will have rat-cat fight, throat cutting competition, degradation in quality, derating and finally start of Consolidation phase.

Much more. Look around Telecom, Infra and so on.

Who said: Investing is easy? Its simple, stupid. Read the blog title, I am the Stupid!

A Business like ad-Venture Funds: Here it is - Max Ventures

They are Sardar. & ADVENTURE attached to them is double killing. & it makes triple killing when you add MAX as well!

Here you need to trust them for decade than making fun and jokes!

Are you fine?

Then, you might be rewarded handsomely. May Be! Right? You know Probabilities?

They may Invest into start ups. Hospitality. RE. Education. You give them nice idea and they will Invest. Do you have any?

Its Max Ventures & Industries.

Sardar is Mr. Analjit Singh

Read about it. Read annual reports. Read who is managing company and you trust them?

Do not forget to read disclaimer. I am not an Investment adviser & you may loose all capital if Invest based on my views only.

He he! Jo Darr gaya wo Marr gaya!

Virinchi limited: An IT company with healing power?

No, I don't know.

I am an ignorant, fool, common man. all 3 words are synonyms.

I do touch, feel, See with open eyes and if something mesmerize me, I get into love with it.

Probably this is one such case. Probably, as I can sell it any day. I am common man with huge mood swings.

Bought it at 55+ levels many months back and continuously adding.

Read disclaimer as well. Equity Investment in risky, so People Invest into LIC where they have surety of not beating Inflation.

SHRI JAGDAMBA POLYMERS: GEOTEXTILE Opportunity?

SHRI JAGDAMBA POLYMERS: CMP 713.8

GEOTEXTILE IS A HIGH STRENGTH POLYPROPYLENE WOVEN FABRIC PRODUCED WITH HIGH TENACITY TAPES AND THEN WOVEN ON WIDER WIDTH SULZER LOOMS UPTO 5.3 MTRS. Company is not R&D backed like Strata Geo. But able to get into generic GeoTextile. Have to look other parameters like Debt (looks high) and contribution of Geo in total sales. Growth momentum is there. Not a high class investment grade stock, but will fetch info about Geo Ind. Garware rope looks better to capitalize the Geo Opportunities.  Please read the disclosure. I am novice Investors, putting note here only for further discussion. Thanks

2016: The year that was!

A tough year 2016 gone.

We have gone through many phases in 2016, starting China slowdown worries, commodity melt down, Oil shock and so withdrawal of gulf nations's sovereign fund's allocation in India, Br-exit, Trump Win and then Demonetization.

USA markets performed very well, and doing so on the hope of Trump focus on USA infra, Jobs and migration. Metals have recovered and performed very well in the same period with hope of USA recovery. One of the worst miss for me is, ignoring Vedanta resources at Rs 60-70 (Now 200+ and I do see going it beyond 300-400 in couple of years as commodity cycle turns up) when it was available dirt cheap. Simply, I could not trust Anil agrawal, though he did nothing wrong from shareholder perspective, at the same time, I do trust TATA a lot like any other Indian, who did nothing good for enhancing shareholder value except TCS. These are perceptions and we need to look pragmatically. Opportunities need rational and prepared mind. I learnt the lesson.

We could not see, a secular bull market in India in 2016. Prices keep on moving 20-30-40 higher and then dropped as well because of many variables and reasons just discussed.

Another reason for not a secular bull market in India is, Mr Modi push for economic RESET. This reset process peaked when he took decision of #DeMo. India was like a running Tiger, something like Satyam story, as CEO Raju said that time, "It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten." So he maintained status quo, Which ultimately leads to infamous fall of Satyam.

India in Manmohan era was running high on consumption boom. How? Investigate about it with open eyes. Loot at top end of Govt, black money tax by Govt ministers/officers, Dalali in each Govt project, PSU bank lending to unethical builders, corporate; Mafias, NREGA SCHEME and so on. All this leads to higher inflation in unproductive assets like Gold and real estate. Highly inflated real estate become safe heaven for all these black money looters. Inflation become political issue and RBI could just manage interest rates in R Rajan Era and left everything to Govt. Manmohan Singh was Mr Raju of "INDIA".

Mr Modi could have let India run like earlier Govt Or could have press RESET button to push things into structural way and saving Nation from a sudden fall to trigger shock. I am happy, He choose second option for which he was voted by Indians.

But, then, turning a track of high speed train is not possible. Train has to be slow down first and track need to be changed afterward. Precisely happening in my views now. This process will benefit the companies which are ethical, tax payers, adoptable and flexible to change. At other end, it will destroy/damage few dishonest corporates and other unethical businesses. Read here: biggest ever fire sale of Indian corporate assets has begun. Unfortunately, this entire exercise will hurt and stall massive consumption boom which was happening with loot/free/black/unethical money, but hopefully, it will be temporary and new boom will be more structured and solid, which will last longer & sustain. So , We are in massive transition phase. Ultimately, how it will turn out, nobody knows. But at least, we have leadership who has been able to take bold decision. In my views, bold decisions will not stop here, And we will have long due reforms in each sector, provided, We choose Mr Modi again in UP and then in Loksabha elections 2019. The tendency of free money, loot, corruption will reduce and Indians will be asked to Work/Earn/taxed in order to survive & enjoy freedom & democratic Nation.
Can anyone imagine that there are only 24 lakh tax payers above 10 lk income? Then, Who is buying 1-2-5 Cr flats? Is your near by medical + grocery store operator + real estate consultant + Clinics + Hospitals + Jewelers + Paan wala + Saloon + Snacks sellers + traders are paying tax? Ask them, Or you have email id of IT dept now. Go ahead. GST is one possibility to draw them under Tax umbrella. Digitization push will show real potential of Indian consumption + trades. Tax need to be very less but should cover every eligible stakeholder , and that's only way to be it, less. I think, We are in that direction.
This RESET button will damage demand first. We will be regulated, taxed and structured properly. DeMo will lead to more cash into system, Govt while, could not curb black cash directly to come into system, but then, will not let it go back. Govt may keep 2-3 lk cr by not printing that money. This will be start in direction of liquidity boost in the system, and will lead to low interest rates regime sooner than later. Without low rates, a secular bull market not possible. So far black cash is concern, its going to be a ongoing process & Govt has at least now few traces left in the system.

But problems are manifold. Rupee getting weakened as simply $ getting stronger. World after seeing a long period of globalization, now moving towards localization. Economic Growth using GDP growth is not a very sensible formula to measure progress, and it will not be endless in broader sense. Growth pace is slowing down in developed economies. So Nations are choosing protectionism in order to prosper their own citizen. We may see, Localization as trend for coming decades. So, India needs to stand on its own feet than mere looking at FDI/foreign money.
FII are continuously pulling money back in last couple of months, still Nify/Sensex is not butchered deeply, simply, because, Modi has hit hard on STORED, UNPRODUCTIVE ASSETS + BLACK CASH, and its now getting distributed and diverted to financial instruments slowly. We need to find our potential, Indians need to be motivated to contribute into productive assets, that's only way to survive. We can not look at easy foreign money like beggars, We need to show our potential of our own wealth used in productive task, enterprising skills, bold reforms, then only, Foreign money will come for long term. Actually, nothing has happened in this direction with clear vision in last many decades, simply, because, We have not chosen, a Govt with full majority, a leader with vision and execution skills, both simultaneously.

But with few more painful incident first, We MAY be moving into altogether different orbit of sustained economic development. It will not be linear, will have hiccups but direction will be clear. And if this do not happen in a bad case, We with a 125 Cr population, will a ticker bomb than anymore demographic dividend!

Fingers crossed! Good Bye 2016! Welcome, 2017!

Commercial Syn Bags Limited: A Indori Opportunity in SME platform (CMP 34) ?

Disc: I am not an investment adviser and do not HOLD any share at the moment. Pls take your decision.

One should read the RHDP before taking any decision: http://www.bseindia.com/downloads/ipo/201667153842CSBL_Draft_Prospectus.pdf

Commercial Syn Bags Limited:

Commercial Syn Bags Ltd. is a leading manufacturer and exporter of FIBC / Big Bag, PP Fabric, PP Woven Bag, BOPP Bags and Tarpaulin in India. To know more about our company you can visit our web www.comsyn.com 1) ISO 9001:2008 certified company 2) Star Export House Status given by Govt. of India 3) FIBC are certified from Labordata, Germany Our company is flexible with its product design, with focus on customized and tailor-made product. We have experience of 25 years in this industry and from past 10 years our core competency is in FIBC Product Profile: 1. Builder Bag 2. FIBC : U-Panel and Circular 3. Baffle / Q-Bag 4. Tunnel Bag 5. Single Loop / Double Loop 6. UN Bags 7. Asbestos Bag 8. PP Container Bag 9. Bags with Liner – Formfit / Bottle shaped, Tabbed, Glued 10. Box Bag 11. Polypropylene Woven bags 12. PP Fabric 13. Tarpaulin 14. BOPP Bags

Specialties

FIBC, Tarpaulins, BOPP Bags

• Website

  http://www.comsyn.com

• Industry

  Packaging and Containers

• Type

  Public Company

• Headquarters

  3/4 Jaora Compound MY Hospital Road Indore, Madhya Pradesh452001 India

• Company Size

  501-1000 employees

• Founded

  1986

Curious case of Hawkins Cookers

"Every individual, every family, every company, from time to time, goes through hard times.  The hard times may be self-inflicted or imposed by external circumstances.  In my experience and to my way of thinking, it hardly matters whether the hard times are the result of a fault of character or whether they are a result of the forces of history or an Act of God.  What matters is how the individual or the company deals with the hard times.  Whether one is overwhelmed by the misfortune or whether one survives and emerges stronger from the experience, to a great extent, depends upon how one deals with the hard times."


This is speech of Chairperson of a company having tremendious record of capital allocation, honest & intregated management, rich dividend history and having a decades Old brand which we trust in our Kitchen.

I am talking about the "Curious case of Hawkins Cooker". Company is facing different issues since a more than a year now and according to Chiarperson, going through "Hard times" or a special situation as we call in investing term. 

What is problem: Lets dig Chairperson speech again: "Supply was hindered by deteriorated labour relations in our Jaunpur Factory and an order of the Punjab Pollution Control Board (PPCB), dated October 13, 2011, instructing our Hoshiarpur Factory to cease operations in view of their allegation that it was producing effluents with pollutants beyond permissible limits.”

What Management Did/Doing: Well, in this Era, Honesty is something which became undesirable and We know How our Governance is functionaing. But this problem is faced by all "Well Managed" companies like In Bajaj Auto AGM, Rahul Bajaj mentioned How Industries is facing hurdles and now Industries are forced to obey many meaningless rules, he said they will follow "letter of the law" not the "spirit of the law". In other sense this is happening in every aspect of Life where We do not follow the Spirit. Spirit has been pushed to end and Everything which matters is WINING. 

Lets come to topic, So Why to blame this Old aged, MBA Educated Chairperson "Mr. Brahm Vasudeva" who wanted to be Honest and deal issues with honesty. He does not want to hire any "NIRA as Consultant". Honesty has its own price which is being paid by Company and its Shareholders since more than a year, in terms of Restricted Production, Pending Unfulfilled Orders and So Economy of the Company. But what a less price for the Own values if one believes in them. Finally theoretically Honesty has to Win! Not agree? Okay lets see what Chairperson says about dealing the issues.

Chairperson: Jaunpur Factory Issues: "Meanwhile, though there are still some sections of workmen trying to go slow, the factory as a whole is giving much better production than was the case a year ago.  We are hopeful that the matter will be resolved shortly. "

Hoshiarpur Factory Issue: "The Environmental Engineer of PPCB has been directed by PPCB to visit our Hoshiarpur Factory immediately after August 15, 2012, to verify the facts and to submit a detailed report along with his recommendations.  PPCB has declared that they shall decide the matter on merit based upon the report of the Environmental Engineer."

So what is there for Investors:
I was in the Hawkins AGM, and Chairperson who never speculate on any thing, told very confidently that, "All Issues pertaining to this Hard time, will get sorted out very shortly, and this short time is not in years, not even months, but is in Weeks".


Its been 4 weeks now, Any time this Special Situation will get overcome by the Company and the business can reward its patience share holders. Note it, Mind it, Read it again.. As per the Chairperson, this is one of the 4 those "hard time" for the company, and Once Company is out of that mess, That should be the Higher times for its business, so growth and hence earning to stock prices as happened in the past. Boat of Hawkins would sail quite fast after this storm!
So if you are already a share holder, Do Smile and if wanted to make some time pass till these issues sorted out, Solve this Puzzle from a Fundoo Professor: The Hawkins-Unitech Puzzle

Happy Investing!
Note: These are personal views, please as always, educate and investigate self before putting your hard earned money. This article is just for education and sharing purpose!