Friday, April 7, 2017

The 100 PE Elite Club: Companies with Greatness-Factor™

Well, Thoughts started flowing after reading a discussion about a amazing retail chain business which listed recently.

Why a company gets 100 PE?

Let me reserve copy rights of 100PEEliteClub™, PEPie™ & Greatness-Factor™ first.

Greatness-Factor™ might be well written and researched. Will talk later.

Why a company gets 100 PE? It has to have Greatness-Factor™ first.

Can we think in this way:

A Segment gets 100 PE based on opportunity size, tailwinds and sustainability in foreseeable future.

A pioneer, first mover, trend setter and leader is the segment will get entire pie of 100 PE.

This will attract competition. A copycat replicates the model or try to.

So, Now 2 such business will divide PEPie™, and will trade on 50PE.

This will attract more competition.

So, Now 4 such quality business will divide PEPie™, and will trade on 25PE.

This will attract more competition. and then, Segment equity will dilute, will have rat-cat fight, throat cutting competition, degradation in quality, derating and finally start of Consolidation phase.

Much more. Look around Telecom, Infra and so on.

Who said: Investing is easy? Its simple, stupid. Read the blog title, I am the Stupid!

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

A Business like ad-Venture Funds: Here it is - Max Ventures

They are Sardar. & ADVENTURE attached to them is double killing. & it makes triple killing when you add MAX as well!

Here you need to trust them for decade than making fun and jokes!

Are you fine?

Then, you might be rewarded handsomely. May Be! Right? You know Probabilities?

They may Invest into start ups. Hospitality. RE. Education. You give them nice idea and they will Invest. Do you have any?

Its Max Ventures & Industries.

Sardar is Mr. Analjit Singh



Read about it. Read annual reports. Read who is managing company and you trust them?

Do not forget to read disclaimer. I am not an Investment adviser & you may loose all capital if Invest based on my views only.

He he! Jo Darr gaya wo Marr gaya!

Virinchi limited: An IT company with healing power?

No, I don't know.

I am an ignorant, fool, common man. all 3 words are synonyms.

I do touch, feel, See with open eyes and if something mesmerize me, I get into love with it.

Probably this is one such case. Probably, as I can sell it any day. I am common man with huge mood swings.

Bought it at 55+ levels many months back and continuously adding.



Read disclaimer as well. Equity Investment in risky, so People Invest into LIC where they have surety of not beating Inflation.

Sunday, January 1, 2017

SHRI JAGDAMBA POLYMERS: GEOTEXTILE Opportunity?

SHRI JAGDAMBA POLYMERS: CMP 713.8

GEOTEXTILE IS A HIGH STRENGTH POLYPROPYLENE WOVEN FABRIC PRODUCED WITH HIGH TENACITY TAPES AND THEN WOVEN ON WIDER WIDTH SULZER LOOMS UPTO 5.3 MTRS.


Company is not R&D backed like Strata Geo. But able to get into generic GeoTextile. Have to look other parameters like Debt (looks high) and contribution of Geo in total sales.

Growth momentum is there. Not a high class investment grade stock, but will fetch info about Geo Ind.

Garware rope looks better to capitalize the Geo Opportunities. 


Please read the disclosure. I am novice Investors, putting note here only for further discussion.

Thanks

2016: The year that was!

A tough year 2016 gone.
We have gone through many phases in 2016, starting China slowdown worries, commodity melt down, Oil shock and so withdrawal of gulf nations's sovereign fund's allocation in India, Br-exit, Trump Win and then Demonetization.
USA markets performed very well, and doing so on the hope of Trump focus on USA infra, Jobs and migration. Metals have recovered and performed very well in the same period with hope of USA recovery. One of the worst miss for me is, ignoring Vedanta resources at Rs 60-70 (Now 200+ and I do see going it beyond 300-400 in couple of years as commodity cycle turns up) when it was available dirt cheap. Simply, I could not trust Anil agrawal, though he did nothing wrong from shareholder perspective, at the same time, I do trust TATA a lot like any other Indian, who did nothing good for enhancing shareholder value except TCS. These are perceptions and we need to look pragmatically. Opportunities need rational and prepared mind. I learnt the lesson.
We could not see, a secular bull market in India in 2016. Prices keep on moving 20-30-40 higher and then dropped as well because of many variables and reasons just discussed.
Another reason for not a secular bull market in India is, Mr Modi push for economic RESET. This reset process peaked when he took decision of #DeMo. India was like a running Tiger, something like Satyam story, as CEO Raju said that time, "It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten." So he maintained status quo, Which ultimately leads to infamous fall of Satyam.
India in Manmohan era was running high on consumption boom. How? Investigate about it with open eyes. Loot at top end of Govt, black money tax by Govt ministers/officers, Dalali in each Govt project, PSU bank lending to unethical builders, corporate; Mafias, NREGA SCHEME and so on. All this leads to higher inflation in unproductive assets like Gold and real estate. Highly inflated real estate become safe heaven for all these black money looters. Inflation become political issue and RBI could just manage interest rates in R Rajan Era and left everything to Govt. Manmohan Singh was Mr Raju of "INDIA".
Mr Modi could have let India run like earlier Govt Or could have press RESET button to push things into structural way and saving Nation from a sudden fall to trigger shock. I am happy, He choose second option for which he was voted by Indians.
But, then, turning a track of high speed train is not possible. Train has to be slow down first and track need to be changed afterward. Precisely happening in my views now. This process will benefit the companies which are ethical, tax payers, adoptable and flexible to change. At other end, it will destroy/damage few dishonest corporates and other unethical businesses. Read here: biggest ever fire sale of Indian corporate assets has begun. Unfortunately, this entire exercise will hurt and stall massive consumption boom which was happening with loot/free/black/unethical money, but hopefully, it will be temporary and new boom will be more structured and solid, which will last longer & sustain. So , We are in massive transition phase. Ultimately, how it will turn out, nobody knows. But at least, we have leadership who has been able to take bold decision. In my views, bold decisions will not stop here, And we will have long due reforms in each sector, provided, We choose Mr Modi again in UP and then in Loksabha elections 2019. The tendency of free money, loot, corruption will reduce and Indians will be asked to Work/Earn/taxed in order to survive & enjoy freedom & democratic Nation.
Can anyone imagine that there are only 24 lakh tax payers above 10 lk income? Then, Who is buying 1-2-5 Cr flats? Is your near by medical + grocery store operator + real estate consultant + Clinics + Hospitals + Jewelers + Paan wala + Saloon + Snacks sellers + traders are paying tax? Ask them, Or you have email id of IT dept now. Go ahead. GST is one possibility to draw them under Tax umbrella. Digitization push will show real potential of Indian consumption + trades. Tax need to be very less but should cover every eligible stakeholder , and that's only way to be it, less. I think, We are in that direction.
This RESET button will damage demand first. We will be regulated, taxed and structured properly. DeMo will lead to more cash into system, Govt while, could not curb black cash directly to come into system, but then, will not let it go back. Govt may keep 2-3 lk cr by not printing that money. This will be start in direction of liquidity boost in the system, and will lead to low interest rates regime sooner than later. Without low rates, a secular bull market not possible. So far black cash is concern, its going to be a ongoing process & Govt has at least now few traces left in the system.
But problems are manifold. Rupee getting weakened as simply $ getting stronger. World after seeing a long period of globalization, now moving towards localization. Economic Growth using GDP growth is not a very sensible formula to measure progress, and it will not be endless in broader sense. Growth pace is slowing down in developed economies. So Nations are choosing protectionism in order to prosper their own citizen. We may see, Localization as trend for coming decades. So, India needs to stand on its own feet than mere looking at FDI/foreign money.
FII are continuously pulling money back in last couple of months, still Nify/Sensex is not butchered deeply, simply, because, Modi has hit hard on STORED, UNPRODUCTIVE ASSETS + BLACK CASH, and its now getting distributed and diverted to financial instruments slowly. We need to find our potential, Indians need to be motivated to contribute into productive assets, that's only way to survive. We can not look at easy foreign money like beggars, We need to show our potential of our own wealth used in productive task, enterprising skills, bold reforms, then only, Foreign money will come for long term. Actually, nothing has happened in this direction with clear vision in last many decades, simply, because, We have not chosen, a Govt with full majority, a leader with vision and execution skills, both simultaneously.
But with few more painful incident first, We MAY be moving into altogether different orbit of sustained economic development. It will not be linear, will have hiccups but direction will be clear. And if this do not happen in a bad case, We with a 125 Cr population, will a ticker bomb than anymore demographic dividend!
Fingers crossed! Good Bye 2016! Welcome, 2017!

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Commercial Syn Bags Limited: A Indori Opportunity in SME platform (CMP 34) ?

Disc: I am not an investment adviser and do not HOLD any share at the moment. Pls take your decision.

One should read the RHDP before taking any decision: http://www.bseindia.com/downloads/ipo/201667153842CSBL_Draft_Prospectus.pdf

Commercial Syn Bags Limited:


Commercial Syn Bags Ltd. is a leading manufacturer and exporter of FIBC / Big Bag, PP Fabric, PP Woven Bag, BOPP Bags and Tarpaulin in India. To know more about our company you can visit our web www.comsyn.com 1) ISO 9001:2008 certified company 2) Star Export House Status given by Govt. of India 3) FIBC are certified from Labordata, Germany Our company is flexible with its product design, with focus on customized and tailor-made product. We have experience of 25 years in this industry and from past 10 years our core competency is in FIBC Product Profile: 1. Builder Bag 2. FIBC : U-Panel and Circular 3. Baffle / Q-Bag 4. Tunnel Bag 5. Single Loop / Double Loop 6. UN Bags 7. Asbestos Bag 8. PP Container Bag 9. Bags with Liner – Formfit / Bottle shaped, Tabbed, Glued 10. Box Bag 11. Polypropylene Woven bags 12. PP Fabric 13. Tarpaulin 14. BOPP Bags

Specialties

FIBC, Tarpaulins, BOPP Bags
  • Website

  • Industry

    Packaging and Containers
  • Type

    Public Company
  • Headquarters

    3/4 Jaora Compound MY Hospital Road Indore, Madhya Pradesh452001 India
  • Company Size

    501-1000 employees
  • Founded

    1986

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Curious case of Hawkins Cookers

"Every individual, every family, every company, from time to time, goes through hard times.  The hard times may be self-inflicted or imposed by external circumstances.  In my experience and to my way of thinking, it hardly matters whether the hard times are the result of a fault of character or whether they are a result of the forces of history or an Act of God.  What matters is how the individual or the company deals with the hard times.  Whether one is overwhelmed by the misfortune or whether one survives and emerges stronger from the experience, to a great extent, depends upon how one deals with the hard times."


This is speech of Chairperson of a company having tremendious record of capital allocation, honest & intregated management, rich dividend history and having a decades Old brand which we trust in our Kitchen.

I am talking about the "Curious case of Hawkins Cooker". Company is facing different issues since a more than a year now and according to Chiarperson, going through "Hard times" or a special situation as we call in investing term. 


What is problem: Lets dig Chairperson speech again: "Supply was hindered by deteriorated labour relations in our Jaunpur Factory and an order of the Punjab Pollution Control Board (PPCB), dated October 13, 2011, instructing our Hoshiarpur Factory to cease operations in view of their allegation that it was producing effluents with pollutants beyond permissible limits.”


What Management Did/Doing: Well, in this Era, Honesty is something which became undesirable and We know How our Governance is functionaing. But this problem is faced by all "Well Managed" companies like In Bajaj Auto AGM, Rahul Bajaj mentioned How Industries is facing hurdles and now Industries are forced to obey many meaningless rules, he said they will follow "letter of the law" not the "spirit of the law". In other sense this is happening in every aspect of Life where We do not follow the Spirit. Spirit has been pushed to end and Everything which matters is WINING. 

Lets come to topic, So Why to blame this Old aged, MBA Educated Chairperson "Mr. Brahm Vasudeva" who wanted to be Honest and deal issues with honesty. He does not want to hire any "NIRA as Consultant". Honesty has its own price which is being paid by Company and its Shareholders since more than a year, in terms of Restricted Production, Pending Unfulfilled Orders and So Economy of the Company. But what a less price for the Own values if one believes in them. Finally theoretically Honesty has to Win! Not agree? Okay lets see what Chairperson says about dealing the issues.

Chairperson: Jaunpur Factory Issues: "Meanwhile, though there are still some sections of workmen trying to go slow, the factory as a whole is giving much better production than was the case a year ago.  We are hopeful that the matter will be resolved shortly. "


Hoshiarpur Factory Issue: "The Environmental Engineer of PPCB has been directed by PPCB to visit our Hoshiarpur Factory immediately after August 15, 2012, to verify the facts and to submit a detailed report along with his recommendations.  PPCB has declared that they shall decide the matter on merit based upon the report of the Environmental Engineer."

So what is there for Investors:
I was in the Hawkins AGM, and Chairperson who never speculate on any thing, told very confidently that, "All Issues pertaining to this Hard time, will get sorted out very shortly, and this short time is not in years, not even months, but is in Weeks".


Its been 4 weeks now, Any time this Special Situation will get overcome by the Company and the business can reward its patience share holders. Note it, Mind it, Read it again.. As per the Chairperson, this is one of the 4 those "hard time" for the company, and Once Company is out of that mess, That should be the Higher times for its business, so growth and hence earning to stock prices as happened in the past. Boat of Hawkins would sail quite fast after this storm!
So if you are already a share holder, Do Smile and if wanted to make some time pass till these issues sorted out, Solve this Puzzle from a Fundoo Professor: The Hawkins-Unitech Puzzle


Happy Investing!
Note: These are personal views, please as always, educate and investigate self before putting your hard earned money. This article is just for education and sharing purpose!